Norovirus is one of the most common causes of acute gastroenteritis worldwide, affecting hundreds of millions of people each year. This highly contagious virus spreads rapidly, particularly in places with high concentrations of people – such as schools, hospitals, or public places. It is a major cause of food- and waterborne illnesses and has therefore become the focus of an international team of scientists from Portugal, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the Czech Republic.

In the Czech Republic, the study involved Marek Lampart and Ali Raza, both based at IT4Innovations National Supercomputing Center, part of VSB – Technical University of Ostrava. The researchers developed an epidemic model that improves understanding of norovirus transmission and provides valuable guidance for more effective infection control.

The model incorporates memory and hereditary properties – that is, characteristics that depend on the past course of the infection – which are typical in the spread of infectious diseases. It divides the population into four groups: susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered, to track the infection and the number of cases over time. Using analytical methods, the researchers identified equilibrium points and calculated the basic reproduction number, which indicates whether the epidemic will continue to spread. A key factor is the fractional order, which determines the speed at which the population stabilises. The results align with real epidemiological patterns and and can help in planning measures in schools, hospitals, and other high-risk environments.

To validate the theoretical findings, the team developed a numerical model based on the GL-NSFD method (Generalised Linear Non-Standard Finite Difference) and used IT4Innovations’ computational resources for the simulations. The results show that various model parameters – such as the transmission rate during human contact – significantly influence both the risk of an outbreak and the duration of an epidemic.

Supported by the REFRESH project, this research provides health authorities and experts with a valuable tool for predicting and managing the spread of norovirus. A more precise understanding of infection transmission can help implement measures that reduce the impact of this dangerous virus on public health and the economy.

Research article
Numerical solutions for norovirus epidemic spread: implications for public health control
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-14688-4